I'd say that you are entirely correct in your assessment of the silly mega pixel race in compact cameras.

Don't worry about complexity with the low end dSLRs. If you take a low end dSLR and leave it in full auto mode it really is little different from using a prosumer compact in auto mode.

The massive range of lenses might seem complicated and confusing. However if you just bought the Canon 18-55mm and just left that on then you would a similar zoom range to the Nikon 5100 (but no where near the range of the Lumix, there is no single SLR lens that can get close to 36-432mm).